The UK Potato Market - A Farmer's View
May 2010
Where has all the rain gone? Perhaps it is in Poland because some of our staff have gone back home to help sort out the flood damage! This growing season is starting to be of considerable concern. First we had the cold spring, then the dry warm period which allowed planting to progress, then more late frosts and now drought. All in all it has been a very poor start to the growing season.
If potatoes are planted into cold soil it has a severe adverse affect on the crop. Growers usually wait until soil temperatures reach about 8°C which this year meant a long wait. Not only does cold soil slow the growth of the potato plant to a near standstill but it also allows pathogens to take a hold. The consequence of planting in cold soil can be an almost total loss, so patience is essential even though it means that the potatoes are planted later than the ideal time. This problem seems to be worse on the lighter soils and also with some varieties of potatoes more than others although no-one seems to know why that should be.
The late frosts did do some damage to the earlier crops. Crops which had leaves emerged through the soil ridges were blackened in the areas where frost lingered. These damaged plants will send out more shoots and still produce a crop but it will be a later crop with a reduced yield. Fortunately, most of the maincrop varieties that we use had not grown as far as the emergent stage so were not affected in the same way; just slowed down by the lower soil temperatures.
In my last Farmer's View I said that I was concerned that the returns for some growers from the 2009 growing season - ie the crop that we are currently using - have been so poor that many growers will cut back on the area grown or, in some cases, pack up growing altogether. Those growers who had quality problems, especially bruising, will have made huge losses. Prices overall have been lower than in recent years but the value of bruised potatoes is almost nothing. Considering the huge cost of growing the crop, which will be in the region of £1500 per acre depending on the grower, means that, in order to continue, some farmers will need a very understanding bank manager! At the moment the British Potato Council will not have sufficient information to be able to publish the planting figures but the general feeling is that the area planted is expected to be down by a substantial amount.
In a good growing season this reduction would not matter too much but the weather so far suggests that yields might be much lower than average. At the moment the yields of the earliest varieties which are being lifted for the new potato market are down by 20% in some cases compared to last year.
This does not necessarily mean that maincrop varieties will be the same because it depends on the weather from now on, but it can have a knock-on effect on price. The current lower yields mean that the price for new potatoes is staying high. Some growers of earlies who are deciding when to lift their crops which are still growing, will consider yield against price. If the price is high they will cash in by lifting the crop sooner rather than leaving it to bulk up for extra tonnes. This has the effect of clearing more acres. The more acres that are cleared early, the less tonnes there are available later in the season. Furthermore, many crops are grown on contract and if a farmer has contracted to supply a customer's needs for new potatoes but his yields are lower than expected, that grower has to lift more acres to meet the demand.
At the moment we are still using the 2009 crop and it is now becoming clear that this 'old' crop will have to last longer because this year's set-skin crop is going to be later than usual. As a consequence prices have risen because some stock holders think the price will rise further as the weeks go by and they are not releasing as much stock for sale. Fortunately, because the 2009 crop yield was high there is still a considerable amount of stock in store so we are not expecting major shortages and at present the price has not moved substantially.
We need a good growing season to ensure a steady market next year. A modest rise in prices to ensure growers achieve a profitable return would be beneficial for the whole industry but a huge rise could be detrimental in the longer term because consumers are likely to move to other staples. If we get the much needed rain with a warm sunny summer the yields will counteract the lower area planted. The ideal would be beautiful summer days with rain each night!
Stop press! It has started raining just as I was finishing this report, so one thing less to worry about!
Rob Bannister
Robert Bannister ©2010
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Traditionally Baked Potatoes
